Poptech 2005 12

Session 12

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Scandal of Prediction
Value of library is the books we haven't read
We focus on what we know.  The narrative falacy - we ascribe a cause to random events
Epistemic error - over confidence in your ability to know what you know
Most pojects late and over budget.

THe limits of our ability to predict the future.

Robert Trivers
On the biological roots of behavior
deception is part of the biological repertoire
principles of deception
- rarity helps deception